Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s six‑day state visit to China began with a clear diplomatic and economic signal: re-engaging with Australia’s key trading partner while managing the delicate balance within its alliance with the United States.
“It’s wonderful to be back here in Shanghai for my second visit to China as the Prime Minister of Australia,” Mr Albanese told reporters upon arrival alongside his fiancée Jodie Haydon. “There are important meetings to be had this week, and the fact that I am leading a very large business delegation speaks to the importance of the economic relationship between Australia and China.
“We know that one in four of Australia’s jobs depends on our exports, and China is our major trading partner, with exports to China being worth more in value than the next four countries combined. So this week, we will have important meetings about tourism, about decarbonisation of steel, about the full range of issues.”
This marks Albanese’s second official visit to China since November 2023, following turbulent years that saw Canberra’s calls for a COVID‑19 origins inquiry and a Huawei ban prompt Chinese trade reprisals — tariffs that were only lifted gradually by late 2023.
On day two in Shanghai, Albanese is scheduled to meet with leading mining and steel executives to advance Australia’s proposal for a green steel partnership. It aims to reduce emissions from iron ore mining and steel production — a sector that significantly contributes to both economies.
However, Canberra’s economic outreach is being closely watched by Washington, where the Trump administration has revived strategic pressure on allies. Elbridge Colby, the Trump-appointed Pentagon policy chief, has reportedly urged Australia to pre‑commit its future US‑supplied nuclear submarines for use in a potential conflict involving China and Taiwan — a demand Albanese has so far declined to endorse.
Former US intelligence advisor Derek Grossman said the request reflects Washington’s intent to test the reliability of its Indo-Pacific allies.
“I think it is more than just about the submarines,” Grossman said. “I think it’s about Australia’s alliance with the US and whether Australia and Japan, among others, are willing to support the US’ military operations.”
Grossman warned that pre‑commitments are ill-advised in such a fluid geopolitical environment.
“When he (Prime Minister Anthony Albanese) returns to Australia I don’t think he should comment on that anyway, because Australia shouldn’t have to tell a close ally it will help the US in the future — it should be pretty obvious.
“Secondly, circumstances are always unknown. Some of it is inherently unknown, that’s why I disagree with the Trump administration asking these kinds of questions.”
He added that AUKUS — a trilateral agreement between Australia, the US and the UK to build nuclear-powered submarines — was not designed to require advance commitments on their deployment.
“It’s not particularly surprising… the Trump administration is conducting a review of that program, so this is not particularly surprising.”
While the business focus is clear, foreign policy experts believe Australia’s diplomatic stance is being tested by Beijing’s increasingly assertive regional behaviour.
Andrew Phelan, a former DFAT China Council scholar, warned:
“They (China) are now arguing with South Korea over structures in the Yellow Sea… infringing on Japan’s airspace on a regular basis. The behaviour is becoming more belligerent.”
He questioned the effectiveness of Canberra’s commonly used diplomatic phrase:
“I’m not sure what that actually means in practice in terms of us pushing back.”
Meanwhile, Acting Defence Minister Pat Conroy reaffirmed that Australia would not pre‑commit its submarines — or troops — to future conflicts, insisting such decisions would remain sovereign and made on a case-by-case basis.
Albanese aims to reset economic ties and secure green-steel collaboration, but his visit is inseparable from the broader challenge: maintaining strategic ambiguity while balancing Australia’s alliance with the United States and its deep economic interdependence with China.
